Will the Supreme Court hear a case about prediction market pre-emption?
RegulamentaçãoOne-OffCommoditiesPolítica dos EUA3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 61.9%
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado8/09/25, 18:18 UTC31/12/29, 19:13 UTC
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Will the SCOTUS agree to hear a case about CFTC pre-emption wrt to prediction markets / events contracts by 2030?
- The case can be about Kalshi or any other event contract venue.
- The spirit of the market intends to resolve on the issue of whether or not state sports betting laws will be pre-empted, but in the interest of avoiding rules issues, any preemption case about PMs will do.
- Resolution criteria
- Resolves YES if, by market close, the U.S. Supreme Court grants certiorari in a case where the Questions Presented include whether federal law (e.g., the Commodity Exchange Act) preempts state gambling laws as applied to prediction markets/event contracts, and the Court holds oral argument (including in a consolidated case).
- Summary dispositions without argument and emergency applications on the shadow docket do NOT count.
