Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 78.7%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 7 horas
Desatualizado11/09/23, 18:06 UTC1/01/35, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Resolves YES if a post made by @ScottAlexander (e.g. on Astral Codex Ten) between 2023-09-11 and 2034-12-31 (inclusive) is an "all-time" post in my judgement by the end of 2034.
- UTC times will be used.
- Only posts by Scott count.
- For example, the book review contest submissions do not count (unless one of them is later revealed to have been written by Scott).
- Motivation: Meditations on Moloch was written about ten years ago.
- It is widely acknowledged as a seminal post both on Slate Star Codex, as well as in the rationalist discourse.
