Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92.2%
Previsores
52
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 8 horas
Desatualizado1/08/23, 12:17 UTC1/01/30, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will a room-temperature, atmospheric pressure superconductor be discovered before 2030?
Manifold MarketsHas Taj Quantum invented a room-temperature, ambient-pressure superconductor?
Manifold MarketsWill a commercially available device incorporate a room-temperature, ambient pressure superconductor by 2030?
Manifold Markets[Metaculus] Will a room-temperature and ambient-pressure superconductor be used in a commercial application before 2030?
Manifold MarketsNear room-temperature Meissner effect in 2026?
KalshiParis Accord goal of reducing global Greenhouse Gas Emissions by 43%: achieved by the end of 2030?
FutuurRegras
Resolves YES if https://www.metaculus.com/questions/18169/date-for-room-temp-superconductivity/ resolves to a date before 2030.
- Copy of Metaculus's criteria:
- Resolution Criteria
- For positive resolution, a material must be developed or discovered that demonstrates reliable superconductivity at a temperature between -5° and 105° C and at a pressure between 0.8 and 1.2 standard atmosphere.
- One initial paper and a successful, credible replication appearing in a reputable peer-reviewed journal will suffice for positive resolution, and will resolve as the date of the publication of the replication paper.
- All type superconductors are eligible (e.g., Type-I, -II, -1.5).