Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets?
One-OffBusiness & Corporate9aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 77.8%
Previsores
25
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado2/10/25, 16:20 UTC2/10/35, 16:19 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
If a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWho Will Sponsor My Episode for $25K With Robin Hanson if It Exists?
Manifold MarketsWill Robin Hanson win the Nobel Prize for Economics before his death?
Manifold MarketsLaw banning sports prediction markets enacted in 2026?
PolymarketWill a law restricting sports trades on prediction markets be enacted in 2026?
PredictItSports Prediction Markets taxed as gambling?
PolymarketRegras
Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down.
- Resolves NO if this does not happen after 10 years.
- Update 2025-10-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - 7-day window starts after notification: The 7 days begin once Robin Hanson is notified of the report; if he does not contradict within that period, it counts.
- Obvious abuse/false reports may be ignored: The creator may use discretion to disregard clearly dishonest or spammy repeated claims.
- Update 2025-10-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Clarification on what counts as "turned down": A request to talk about prediction markets that is declined because the requester primarily wants to discuss their own grand theory (rather than genuinely discuss prediction markets) does NOT count as being "turned down" for purposes of this market's resolution.
Mercados abertos
Business & CorporatePOLYMARKET$LAPTOP FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- $10M+5.5pt96%
- $25M+8.5pt94%
- $50M+13.0pt87%
+4 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 351,4 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 351,4 mil
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 7 - September 9, 2026?
- 40-64+6.0pt52%
- 65-89+24.5pt45.1%
- 90-114-2.5pt2.9%
+7 mais resultados
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of December 2026?
- NVIDIA+1.0pt78.4%
- Apple+0.6pt13.7%
- Alphabet6.9%
+5 mais resultados
POLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 8 - September 15, 2026?
- 180-199-1.0pt18.2%
- 200-21918.2%
- 160-179+1.0pt14.1%
+23 mais resultados
KALSHIWashington aerospace manufacturing employment average in 2026
- Above 80,000 jobs98%
- Above 81,000 jobs95%
- Above 82,000 jobs+3.0pt92%
+10 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 183,7 mil
POLYMARKETLargest Company end of September?
- NVIDIA+0.3pt98%
- Apple-0.3pt2%
- Alphabet0%
+6 mais resultados
- Boeing commercial airplane deliveries in 2026
- Illinois nuclear electricity generation in 2026
- California FAIR Plan policies in force on September 30, 2026
- Elon Musk # of tweets in September 2026?
- 3rd Largest Company end of September?
- Variational FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- Predict.fun FDV above ___ one day after launch?
- First to hit $1B FDV: ANSEM, CASHCAT, AI, or NET?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 78% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? é resolvido?
- Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de outubro de 2035.
- Como Will Robin Hanson ever turn down anyone who wants to talk to him about prediction markets? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolves YES if anyone reports, and Robin Hanson does not contradict within 7 days, that they requested to talk to Robin Hanson about prediction markets, and got turned down.