Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 57.3%
Previsores
3
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 55 minutos
Atrasado11/09/25, 20:29 UTC31/12/27, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
At the start of 2028, resolve YES if and only if there is some option (any bulk) that costs less than $1 per 120 mana.
- Note that the equilibrium probability for this market is lower than its true probability.
- This is because betting NO pays out high-value mana (by definition) and loses low-value mana (again by definition), while YES does the opposite.
- (the most extreme case would be something like "will Manifold still exist", where the equilibrium would be 100%).
- This is also experimental to see what happens in a situation like this
