Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 99% em 23 de outubro de 2026.

Quando Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026? é resolvido?

Will Katalin Karikó Win a Nobel Prize in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 31 de dezembro de 2026.

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Não 99%

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Atualizado há 1 hora

Atrasado

31/08/23, 18:39 UTC31/12/26, 22:59 UTC

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Katalin Karikó (see Wikipedia https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katalin_Karik%C3%B3) pioneered the science behind mRNA vaccines.

She has many of the major awards that normally preceed a Nobel Prize (Japan Prize, Lasker, &c), but has not yet won a Nobel Prize.
Resolves YES if she wins any Prize in 2026 even if shared.
This market will resolve once all the science prizes are announced (or earlier if she announced as a winner), which should be the case by mid October 2026.
Note that this market is for 2026 specifically, if she wins before, that will not count towards this market! A potential earlier win will also not immediately resolve NO because there is a chance she will be awarded a Prize in multiple years.