Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 92.7%
Previsores
13
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 4 horas
Desatualizado11/07/23, 20:20 UTC1/01/50, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Regras
Wind power can be inconvenient because you have to build the turbines where the wind is and the wind is unreliable.
- But what if you make your own wind with a giant black and white checkerboard pattern on the surface of the earth? The boundaries between the squares would have strong winds from the white side to the black side whenever the sun is up due to thermal updraft on the black squares and downdraft on the white squares.
- One would need to experiment to find the optimal square size somewhere between 50m and 5km.
- In typical natural conditions 2% of solar irradiance is converted into wind, but when we manufacture the optimal conditions it would more than that, and then the wind turbines are ~50% efficient at converting wind to electricity, resulting in solar->electric efficiency of 1%.
- So it would use ~20x more area per watt than photovoltaics, but the blacktop and whitetop could be 2-3 orders of magnitude cheaper than photovoltaic panels, and wind turbines could be several times cheaper per kwh than photovoltaics if they could be operated at peak capacity all day every day.
- This question resolves YES if there is a wind power plant based on this principle by 2050.
