Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 50.1% em 31 de outubro de 2026.

Will California repeal or significantly amend Proposition 103 by December 31, 2028?

ClimaOne-Off2a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 50.1%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 16 horas

Desatualizado

10/01/25, 14:28 UTC31/12/28, 23:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Proposition 103, passed by California voters in 1988, requires prior approval for property and casualty insurance rates.

In recent years, California has faced escalating wildfire risks, leading to substantial losses for insurers.
The recent Los Angeles wildfires have caused unprecedented damage, with estimates suggesting they could become the costliest in the state's history.
Business Insider
In response to these challenges, major insurers like State Farm and Allstate have ceased accepting new homeowner insurance applications in California, citing increased wildfire risks and soaring construction costs.
The insurance industry's withdrawal has sparked debates about the sustainability of Proposition 103.