Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 86.3%
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado12/01/26, 00:59 UTC17/10/26, 22:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Nobel Prize in Economics 2026
KalshiIf a Nobel Prize for Economics is awarded to work on prediction markets before 2040, will the recipient be Robin Hanson?
Manifold MarketsWill Michael Levin be awarded the Nobel Prize?
Manifold MarketsAssuming Robin Hanson is awarded the nobel prize, which of his research areas will it be related to?
Manifold MarketsNobel Prize in Literature: 2026
KalshiSuper Ballon d'Or awarded before 2030
KalshiRegras
Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.
- This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
- https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
- The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
- https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
- This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve.
Mercados abertos
Awards
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Winner 2026
- Harry Kane-1.0pt62.4%
- Lamine Yamal13.9%
- Kylian Mbappé+0.6pt10.9%
+28 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,8 mi
- Volume 24h
- € 375 mil
ROBINHOOD (ROTHERA)Ncaafheisman 26
- DMEN+2.0pt17%
- AMAN11%
- CCAR10%
+28 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 117,7 mil
KALSHIThe Game Awards: 2026 Game of the Year
- Grand Theft Auto VI62.9%
- Resident Evil Requiem10.3%
- Control Resonant+1.0pt7.8%
+17 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 1,7 mi
- Volume 24h
POLYMARKETBallon d'Or Top 3 Finish 2026
- Harry Kane+0.8pt94%
- Lamine Yamal-8.5pt77%
- Kylian Mbappé-8.0pt60%
+28 mais resultados
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Alternative
- Olivia Rodrigo-4.0pt62.1%
- twenty one pilots+5.0pt14.7%
- Noah Kahan-6.0pt9.5%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 28,5 mil
KALSHIMTV Video Music Awards: Best Latin
- Shakira & Burna Boy39.8%
- Bad Bunny-2.0pt30.6%
- Anitta with Shakira25%
+5 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 19,7 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 994,7
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best K-Pop
- MTV Video Music Awards: Song of The Year
- MLS: 2026 Goalkeeper of the Year
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Collaboration
- 2026 MTV Video Music Awards: Host
- MTV Video Music Awards: Video of the Year
- Grammy Winner: Best New Artist
- MTV Video Music Awards: Artist of The Year
- MLS: 2026 Golden Boot Winner
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Country
- MTV Video Music Awards: Best Dance
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 86% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? é resolvido?
- Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? deverá ser resolvido em 17 de outubro de 2026.
- Como Will at least one US citizen be awarded the 2026 Nobel Prize in Economics? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolving based on the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.