Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 75.7%
Previsores
29
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
28/07/26, 00:12 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Where will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
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KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.
- Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.
- A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.