Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 77.9%
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado28/07/26, 00:12 UTC30/11/26, 23:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will any Category 4 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWhere will a hurricane make landfall in the US during the 2026 hurricane season?
PolymarketWill any Category 5 hurricane make landfall in the US in before 2027?
PolymarketWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
KalshiWill a hurricane make landfall in the continental U.S. before October 1, 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill a hurricane make landfall in North Carolina this year?
KalshiRegras
Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if at least one major hurricane makes landfall in the United States or its territories during the 2026 calendar year (January 1, 2026, through December 31, 2026).
- Otherwise, this market resolves to NO.
- Major Hurricane: Defined as a Category 3, 4, or 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale (maximum sustained surface winds of 111 mph / 96 knots or greater) at the time of landfall.
- Landfall: Defined by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) as the intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline.
- A storm whose strongest winds or eyewall affect land but whose surface center remains entirely offshore does not constitute a landfall.
Mercados abertos
WeatherPOLYMARKETHighest temperature in Hong Kong on September 8?
- 32°C+69.0pt100%
- 27°C or below-0.1pt0%
- 28°C-0.3pt0%
+8 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 154,6 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 148,6 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+20.0pt99%
- Miami-4.0pt70%
- New Orleans-7.0pt59%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 92,3 mil
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in London on September 8?
- 19°C+54.0pt98%
- 20°C-31.0pt2%
- 16°C or below-0.2pt0%
+8 mais resultados
KALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above63.8%
- 88° to 89°19.1%
- 86° to 87°13.3%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 84,1 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 79,3 mil
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Beijing on September 8?
- 25°C+94.5pt100%
- 19°C or below-3.0pt0%
- 20°C-6.0pt0%
+8 mais resultados
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 8?
- 29°C+70.5pt100%
- 26°C or below-8.4pt0%
- 27°C-10.4pt0%
+8 mais resultados
- Highest temperature in Shanghai on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Shenzhen on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Taipei on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Miami on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Wellington on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Amsterdam on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Guangzhou on September 8?
- Highest temperature in Buenos Aires on September 8?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 78% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*? é resolvido?
- Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*? deverá ser resolvido em 30 de novembro de 2026.
- Como Will at least one major hurricane make landfall in the US*? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Resolution criteria