Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 82%
Previsores
53
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 16 horas
Desatualizado3/07/23, 15:25 UTC1/01/30, 07:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
What conspiracy theories will be proven true by 2100? (Mega Market)
Manifold MarketsWhat conspiracy theories not included in the linked market will be proven true by 2100?
Manifold MarketsWill any of these unhinged conspiracy theories turn out to be true by 2040?
Manifold MarketsWill race realism/scientific racism be proven true by 2050
Manifold MarketsParis curfew effectively lifted by which date?
PolymarketWhat will NYC subway average weekday ridership be in October 2026?
KalshiRegras
I'll be using this list for qualifying conspiracy theories:
- https://www.teenvogue.com/story/most-popular-conspiracy-theories
- [link preview]I'll resolve this market YES if a consensus forms that any of these theories is broadly correct before the market resolution date.
- Otherwise I will resolve NO.
- A longstanding wikipedia article stating that one of these things is true would resolve YES, though I'm open to large polls of experts or other standards for defining consensus.
- I will not bet in this market.