Will an artificial agent ascend in NetHack (version 3.6.6 or later) before the end of 2024?
One-Off
Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoEste mercado foi resolvido: No (88.5%)
Resolvido: 1 de jan. de 2025, 22:29
Resolução verificada pelo provedor
A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.
Aviso de qualidade dos dadosDados desatualizados
Dados de 26 de set. de 2026, 03:50 UTC · política pm-quality-3
Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade
Yes11.5%
No88.5%
NãoGanhou
SimPerdeu
Regras
This is a follow-up to https://manifold.markets/NLeseul/will-an-artificial-agent-ascend-in.
- While a program called BotHack did successfully ascend in 2014, it made use of a strategy called "pudding farming" which allows it to amass all items necessary for ascension in a reliable way.
- More recent versions have made changes to the game rules so that players can no longer benefit from pudding farming and need to use more creative strategies to gather items.
- Late in 2021, a competition was held at the NeurIPS conference to see if any team could build an agent capable of completing the well-known roguelike game NetHack.
- It also aimed to compare approaches using neural networks to those using symbolic logic.
- Ultimately, there were no complete runs of the game by any agent submitted, and symbolic algorithms significantly outperformed neural networks on the challenge's scoring criteria.