Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

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Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 74.8%

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binary

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Play-money forecasting platform

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Atualizado há 11 horas

Desatualizado

27/01/26, 20:31 UTC1/02/28, 00:00 UTC

Resultado24hProbabilidade

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As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

Posts are reviewable once they have been up for at least 12 months, and the 2026 Review resolves in February 2028.
This market will resolve to 100% if the post Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance is one of the top fifty posts of the 2026 Review, and 0% otherwise.
The market was initialized to 14%.

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Which cryptocurrencies will the Treasury purchase during Trump's term?

Bitcoin+3.0ptHistórico registado de 24hCompra–venda registada9%–16%Recolhido: 10 de out. de 2026, 11:50 UTC
CardanoCompra–venda registada0%–7%Recolhido: 10 de out. de 2026, 11:50 UTC
Ethereum-5.0ptHistórico registado de 24hCompra–venda registada2%–10%Recolhido: 10 de out. de 2026, 11:50 UTC

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Volume total: € 3,3 mil
Volume 24h: € 539,9

MANIFOLD MARKETS

Will Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Cardano and Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

No89.4%
Yes10.6%

Volume total: € 609,3
Volume 24h: —

MANIFOLD MARKETS

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

Between $10 billion and $50 billion48.5%
Between $1 billion and $10 billion17.8%
Between $50 billion and $100 billion14%

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Volume total: € 228,5

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Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review??: A Manifold Markets cota No em 74.8% em 10 de outubro de 2026.
Quando Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é resolvido?: Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de fevereiro de 2028.
Como Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review? é liquidado?: A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: As part of LessWrong's Annual Review, the community nominates, writes reviews, and votes on the most valuable posts.

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Will "Ada Palmer: Inventing the Renaissance" make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2026 Annual Review?

Mercados abertos

Which cryptocurrencies will the Treasury purchase during Trump's term?

Will Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Cardano and Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?

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Use este mercado em código ou em um agente de IA

Mercados abertos

Which cryptocurrencies will the Treasury purchase during Trump's term?

Will Charles Hoskinson (co-founder of Cardano and Ethereum) be charged with any felony crime before 2030?

What will be the initial capitalization of the US national strategic crypto reserve?