Will a dust storm pick up material from the Great Salt Lake and cause significant health concerns by 2030?
ClimaOne-Off3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNão 62%
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11
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 1 hora
Atrasado19/03/23, 01:06 UTC2/01/30, 07:59 UTC
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KalshiRegras
This market is intended to predict whether or not the drying of the Great Salt Lake will both continue to occur and have significant negative effects to human health in the surroundings region (on a medium term timescale).
- It is very likely the dust storm would need to meet the following requirements for me to resolve this as Yes:
- Contains a large amount of (presumably poisonous, likely arsenic laden) material from the Great Salt Lake lake bed
- Is expected to cause specifically attributable negative health affects (over the victims lifetime) to greater than 500 people and/or required more than $10,000,000 to mitigate the negative effects of (possibly through economic losses of Shelter In Place or Evacuation orders)
- Recieved reporting by a major news outlet (respected news outlets in the SLC region count).
- Please feel free to ask questions about how I would resolve this in various cases in the comments.