Will a new non-AI technology with at least as much impact on society as the internet or TV did be developed before AGI?
ClimaOne-Off3a
Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 78%
Não 78%Previsores
12
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Atualizado há 17 horas
Desatualizado7/01/24, 15:08 UTC1/01/30, 23:59 UTC
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Will resolve to a separate poll when there is major news source consensus that human-level AGI has been achieved.
- I'll keep extending it until then if 2030 isn't enough time.
- Should have both high impact and wide adoption, so e.g. immortality just for super rich wouldn't count, but room temperature ambient pressure superconductivity in every device would.
