Will a global catastrophe kill at least 10% of humans before 2030, and what will be the cause?
One-OffSociedade e culturaCiência3aManifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualNo global catastrophe 87.3%Líder entre 7 opções
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Atualizado há 18 horas
Desatualizado21/07/23, 00:49 UTC2/01/30, 04:59 UTC
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If the human population decreases by at least 10% in any period of 5 or fewer consecutive calendar years, which we will define here as a "global catastrophe", resolves to the principal cause.
- Otherwise, resolves to "the named outcome".
- See https://www.metaculus.com/questions/1493/global-population-decline-10-by-2100/ and https://www.metaculus.com/questions/2568/ragnar%25C3%25B6k-seriesresults-so-far/ for more precise definitions of these categories and for related forecasts.
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