Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 62.2%
Previsores
9
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado1/08/26, 16:22 UTC28/02/27, 09:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record?
Manifold MarketsSeptember 2026 1st, 2nd, or 3rd hottest on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiWhere will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?
PolymarketWill 2026 be the hottest year ever?
KalshiThis Aug 2026 is the hottest August ever?
KalshiRegras
Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA
- [image]Update 2026-05-18 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If NOAA ranks 2026 as a tie for hottest year on record, the market will resolve 50/50.
- (Identical market to: source market)
Mercados abertos
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 586,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 568,4 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes86%
- No14%
- Volume total
- € 108,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 108,2 mil
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Will 2026 be the hottest year on record??
- A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 62% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? é resolvido?
- Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? deverá ser resolvido em 28 de fevereiro de 2027.
- Como Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: Average global land & ocean surface temperature, measured by NOAA