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| # | Name | Price | 1h % | 24h % | 7d % | Market Cap | Volume(24h) | Circulating Supply | Last 7 Days |
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When will U.S. ground forces first enter Iranian territory? (April 2026)
17dManifold MarketsSem KYCAlertas
Siga este mercado para criar alertas.
Contexto da previsão
Previsão da comunidade atual
April 8 - 14 2.3%
Previsores
15
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
DesatualizadoUltima atualizacao: 12 de abr., 21:17
Resolve
30/04/2026, 23:59
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
-
InÃcio 08/04/2026, 03:52Fim 30/04/2026, 23:59
Tendências
Resultado24hProbabilidade
Regras
This market will resolve to YES for the bucket corresponding to the Washington, D.C. (Eastern Time) date that conventional or special operations ground forces of the United States first physically enter the sovereign land territory of Iran. All other options will resolve to NO.
- If no such confirmation occurs by April 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to Not in April 2026.
- Sovereign Land Territory: Includes the Iranian mainland and internationally recognized Iranian islands (e.g., Kharg Island, Abu Musa, Sirri Island), as well as physically boarding and occupying Iranian-flagged offshore oil platforms within Iranian territorial waters.
- Ground Forces: Implies intentional "boots on the ground" deployments for the purpose of combat, raiding, sabotage, or occupation. This includes both conventional infantry/armor units (e.g., Marines, Army Airborne) and special operations forces (e.g., Navy SEALs, Delta Force, Army Rangers).
- Resolution will be based on official government or military announcements from the United States (e.g., Department of Defense press releases, Presidential addresses), or strong, corroborated consensus reporting from top-tier, credible international news organizations (e.g., AP, Reuters, BBC, NYT, WSJ) confirming the specific date the physical incursion began.
- Exclusions (NOT a YES):
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