When will there be a 90+ minute AI-generated video that humans will pay to see?
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Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
During 2026 (2026-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2027-01-01T00:00Z) 72.3%Líder entre 5 opções
During 2026 (2026-01-01T00:00Z <= time < 2027-01-01T00:00Z) 72.3%Previsores
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Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Variação 7d
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Atualizado há 9 horas
Desatualizado12/12/22, 18:24 UTC1/01/27, 04:59 UTC
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Another way of putting it: "When will the first completely AI-made feature-length movie be released?"
- This question resolves when there is an experience that includes motion video that is:
- That has the script (if any) written by an AI
- An AI produces all images and sound without cameras, microphones, or actors
- The images, script, and sound are all of a quality similar to or better than a 2022 Hollywood movie with a budget of more than $100,000,000.
- (If there is a dispute, this can be resolved by a majority of humans on a 100-human random survey saying the experience has that quality.)
