Quais são as probabilidades atuais de UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the income tax personal allowance rise above £12,570??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 78% em 12 de outubro de 2026.

UK Autumn Budget 2026: will the income tax personal allowance rise above £12,570?

Monthly16d

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 78%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 9 minutos

22/09/26, 14:32 UTC28/10/26, 12:00 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

YES if the Budget announces a personal allowance above £12,570 taking effect on or before 6 April 2028.

Advisers split on this: S&W rated it moderate and BDO rated it low.
Resolves YES if the measure is announced in the Chancellor's Budget speech on 28 October 2026 or appears in the Budget documents HM Treasury publishes that day (the Budget document, the policy decisions table, the policy costings, or the Overview of Tax Legislation and Rates).
A measure announced earlier counts if those documents confirm it.
A consultation, review or call for evidence alone resolves NO.
This market closes at 12:00 UTC on Budget day, 30 minutes before the speech is due to begin, because measures resolve as the Chancellor announces them.