Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualSim 75.9%
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31
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
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Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 12 horas
Desatualizado17/10/23, 18:41 UTC2/01/39, 07:59 UTC
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Mercados Relacionados
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ForecastExRegras
This question resolves true if, looking back in 15 years, it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into AI rather than climate"
- This question resolves false if it's obviously the case that:
- "In 2023, the marginal smart, ethical person should have gone into climate rather than AI"
- Resolves n/a otherwise.
- I'll assume that in either field the person would work on the top 5% of most effective interventions, as judged post-hoc, and that we're only evaluating impact (not salary, personal fit, other idiosyncratic factors).