Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atualOther 29.8%-1.1ptLíder entre 17 opções
Previsores
24
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
+24.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 minutos
3/10/26, 18:53 UTC9/10/26, 04:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
2026 Nobel Peace Prize winner
KalshiWill the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize be awarded (in whole or in part) to an organization?
Manifold Markets🕊️Which person or organization will win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? [ADD RESPONSES]
Manifold MarketsTrump wins Nobel Peace Prize 2026?
Manifold MarketsNobel Peace Prize Winner 2026
PolymarketBallon d'Or Winner 2026
PolymarketRegras
This is a mirror of the Kalshi Nobel Peace Prize market.
- It will follow their resolution.
- To be precise, it is not a perfect mirror, because Manifold's dependent MC markets have a different structure than the Kalshi market—the options here must sum to exactly 100% (whereas Kalshi could resolve multiple or none to 100%).
- Thus, I will take their resolution and translate it into the Manifold equivalent (e.g., Kalshi resolves multiple to 100% -> proportional resolution here).
- "Other" covers the other fringe options that Kalshi lists (but were trading near 0% so I didn't yet add them here).
- The special option "Kalshi resolves every option to 0%" covers the case where Kalshi resolves every option they list to 0% (it does not refer to "Kalshi resolves all options listed by this market to 0%—since there are some options covered by "Other").
