Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
Não 76.5%
Previsores
49
Tipo de pergunta
binary
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 3 horas
Desatualizado13/12/22, 02:29 UTC1/01/28, 05:00 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
Will the percentage of Americans identifying as Christian drop below 20% before 2100?
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KalshiRegras
In a discussion with a friend about whether everyone has a gender identity, I mentioned that it wouldn't bother me if people referred to me as a woman.
- They expressed some skepticism of this; their belief was that everyone has a gender identity, but for people whose identity matches their current body and social role, they don't notice any discomfort or feeling of "wrongness", so they don't end up having any subjective experience of having a gender identity.
- The condition is met if I ask my aquaintances to refer to me with she/her pronouns, and then I'll resolve to YES or NO depending on whether I feel like those pronouns make me uncomfortable in some fundamental way.
- If I haven't done this by the end of 2024, I'll resolve this to N/A, unless I still feel like I might do it soon, in which case I'll extend the deadline a bit.
- For reference:
- I've identified and mostly been treated as a man for my whole life, which hasn't bothered me.
Mercados abertos
Society & CulturePOLYMARKETElon Musk # tweets September 10 - September 12, 2026?
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- 65-89+1.0pt30.3%
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- No98%
- Yes-2.0pt2%
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- € 6,8 mil
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- € 5,8 mil
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- Hurricane95%
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- Tariff86%
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KALSHIWill Florida receive more visitors in 2026 than in 2025?
- No82%
- Yes18%
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- € 989,4
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- Yes-1.5pt19.8%
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Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me??
- A Manifold Markets cota No em 77% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me? é resolvido?
- If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me? deverá ser resolvido em 1 de janeiro de 2028.
- Como If I start identifying as a woman, will it bother me? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: In a discussion with a friend about whether everyone has a gender identity, I mentioned that it wouldn't bother me if people referred to me as a woman.