Quais são as probabilidades atuais de If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)?

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 59.1% em 29 de outubro de 2026.

If China invades or stops flights to Taiwan, will Manifold predict it? (sharper)

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosBem calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 59.1%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 14 horas

Desatualizado

2/12/25, 19:02 UTC30/12/35, 18:53 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

This is the same as https://manifold.markets/Pepe/if-china-invades-taiwan-will-manifo but 30% didn't seem high enough.

The goal of this question is to see if I would have enough warning to buy a plane ticket out.
[link preview]We will examine the most traded Manifold market about China invading Taiwan with a deadline of at most 6 months.
If 3 days before an invasion (or a blockade of flights!) that market says at least 35% then this question resolves YES.
In addition, I will do the same thing for the most traded market about an aerial blockade.
If both markets are below the threshold, this resolves NO.