Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibradoPrevisão da comunidade atual
>= 100 95%Líder entre 7 opções
Previsores
16
Tipo de pergunta
multiple choice
Metodologia
Play-money forecasting platform
Tipo de fonte
Previsão
Variação 7d
0.0 pts
Dados do mercado
Atualizado há 11 horas
Desatualizado2/06/24, 20:04 UTC2/07/27, 05:59 UTC
Tendências
Mercados Relacionados
Perguntas relacionadas para dar contexto, não uma comparação de contratos equivalentes.
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Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRegras
This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:
- [tweet]Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.
- I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate.
- Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.
- See also: @/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme
Mercados abertos
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 90° or above+68.0pt95.2%
- 88° to 89°-22.0pt1%
- 84° to 85°-8.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
- € 586,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 568,4 mil
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- New Orleans+48.0pt99%
- Houston+70.0pt99%
- Minneapolis+17.0pt99%
+19 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+53.0pt95.2%
- 79° or below-3.0pt1%
- 82° to 83°-44.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Austin on Sep 8, 2026?
- 102° to 103°+55.0pt95.2%
- 100° to 101°-47.0pt1%
- 98° to 99°-9.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+47.0pt95.2%
- 90° to 91°-34.0pt1%
- 88° to 89°-6.0pt1%
+3 mais resultados
- Volume total
FORECASTEXWill the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 85 F on September 8, 2026?
- Yes86%
- No14%
- Volume total
- € 108,2 mil
- Volume 24h
- € 108,2 mil
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 86 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Munich on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 87 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 89 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles (LA)(LAX)(KLAX) exceed 88 F on September 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in San Francisco on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Phoenix on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
Perguntas frequentes
- Quais são as probabilidades atuais de How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026??
- A Manifold Markets cota >= 100 em 95% em 8 de setembro de 2026.
- Quando How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? é resolvido?
- How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? deverá ser resolvido em 2 de julho de 2027.
- Como How many people will die of extreme heat in Arizona in 2026? é liquidado?
- A Manifold Markets liquida este mercado da seguinte forma: This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet: