Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Fatal attack preventable by TSA shoe screening before 2030??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 96.6% em 28 de outubro de 2026.

Fatal attack preventable by TSA shoe screening before 2030?

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Dados de 28 de out. de 2026, 03:29 UTC · política pm-quality-4

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Não 96.6%

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Atualizado há 7 minutos

12/07/25, 18:42 UTC31/12/29, 23:59 UTC

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Travelers will now be allowed to keep their shoes on during airport checkpoints in the US.

This question asks whether, before 2030, there will be any death resulting from an attack that credibly would not have been possible or feasible if TSA shoe screening were still in place.
In other words, it will have to be an attack carried out:
On a flight or within the secure area of an airport
That results in the death of someone other than the attacker
Carried out using a weapon that was smuggled through security in a shoe