Quais são as probabilidades atuais de Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography??

A Manifold Markets cota Yes em 59.8% em 28 de outubro de 2026.

Did the NSA work to weaken post-quantum cryptography?

CriptoOne-Off5a

Manifold MarketsSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Previsão da comunidade atual

Sim 59.8%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 1 hora

Atrasado

5/08/22, 23:19 UTC1/01/32, 06:59 UTC

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Regras

Did the NSA interfere with the NIST PQC standardization process with the intent of making the resulting cryptosystem more susceptible to attack?

This market resolves to MKT shortly after close---early January 2032.
There will be no early resolution.
(Otherwise there would be too strong of a bias towards YES.)
I may resolve the market by hand, rather than to MKT, if there's evidence that the market isn't functioning correctly.
For instance, if overwhelming evidence is clearly being ignored, if the market is far from the consensus of crypto professionals, etc. The purpose of this disclaimer is to make sure the Keynesian beauty contest stays on track.