Quais são as probabilidades atuais de AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense??

A Manifold Markets cota No em 56% em 7 de agosto de 2026.

AI honesty #1: by 2027 will we have AI that doesn't hallucinate random nonsense?

One-Off

Manifold MarketsFechadoSem KYCDados de resolução verificadosRazoavelmente calibrado

Este mercado foi resolvido: Yes (44.4%)

Resolvido: 6 de ago. de 2026, 03:14

Resolução verificada pelo provedor

A CoinRithm tem evidência do provedor para o vencedor e o horário de liquidação deste mercado.

Previsão da comunidade atual

Não 55.6%

Previsores

Tipo de pergunta

binary

Metodologia

Play-money forecasting platform

Tipo de fonte

Previsão

Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 14 dias

Desatualizado

13/10/22, 15:526/08/26, 3:14

Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade

Yes44.4%

No55.6%

Não

55.6%

Sim

44.4%

Regras

By "hallucinate random nonsense" I mean the thing where language models will occasionally just say totally ridiculous out of left field stuff, or blatantly be wrong about the current conversational context (e.g. tell you you said a thing you very definitely did not say).

Resolves YES if my subjective impression is that language models basically don't do this anymore, or if we end up getting a reasonable benchmark for this and very good performance on that benchmark.
Update 2026-01-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator indicates the resolution is "pretty close" to being determined.
The key factor will be where the line is drawn between "out of left field stuff" and "normal amounts of factual incorrectness" when making the final subjective determination.