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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. US Politics
  3. Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?
Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?

Who will leave their position in Starmer's cabinet before July?

4.0% (24h)One-OffUS PoliticsEurope19d
KalshiKalshiVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa
Probabilidade implícita atual
Ed Miliband
Ed Miliband 19%+4.0%
Líder entre 7 opções
Qualidade do mercado

28 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

1,7 €

Liquidez

129,5 €

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Compra / Venda

14.0% / 18.0%

Spread

28.6%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 7 minutos

4/05/26, 19:301/07/26, 3:59

Tendências

Resultado24hProbabilidade

Resultado escolhido

Ed Miliband19%

Regras

If Rachel Reeves leaves as Chancellor before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Rachel Reeves must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
  • Note: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role
  • If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
  • Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
  • If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.

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Regras

If Rachel Reeves leaves as Chancellor before July 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • Rachel Reeves must have an actual departure date and vacate the role within the time period.
  • Note: A Cabinet reshuffle in which the individual ceases to hold the specified role but remains a member of the Cabinet still qualifies as leaving the role
  • If the person leaves the role due to death (i.e., if the person dies while holding the role), all contracts on the person may resolve to the last fair price as determined in the sole discretion of the Exchange.
  • Temporary leaves of absence, suspensions, or recusals do not constitute leaving, resigning from, or retiring from the role unless the individual formally and permanently ceases to hold the position.
  • If the person vacates the role and then re-occupies the role, the contract may settle on the initial vacation of the role.