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  1. Mercados de Previsão
  2. Política
  3. Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?
Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

Will anyone win the Colombian presidential election in the first round?

14.8% (24h)Política
KalshiKalshiFechadoVerificar disponibilidadeKYC obrigatório2% de taxa

Este mercado foi resolvido: No (100%)

Resolvido: 1 de jun. de 2026, 13:17

Resultado Vencedor

No

A 7 dias

—

A 24 horas

89%

Consenso
Probabilidade implícita atual
Sim
Sim 0%-14.8%
Qualidade do mercado

36 / 100

Baixa qualidade
Volume 24h

608,6 €

Liquidez

727,5 €

Baixa liquidez
Compra / Venda

0.2% / 0.7%

Spread

250.0%

Spread amplo
Dados do mercado

Atualizado há 11 dias

Desatualizado
5/03/26, 15:0031/05/27, 14:00

Linha do Tempo de Probabilidade

Yes0%
No100%
0%25%50%75%100%30 de mai.31 de mai.1 de jun.
Resultado24hProbabilidade
Sim
Sim
-14.8%
0%
Não
Não
100%

Este mercado fechou. O trading simulado só está disponível em mercados abertos.

Regras

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.

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Regras

If any candidate receives the required threshold of votes to be declared the winner after the first round of voting in the 2026 Colombian presidential election, eliminating the need for any subsequent rounds, runoffs, or instant-runoff tabulations, then the market resolves to Yes.

Kalshi
  • The market resolves to Yes if any candidate meets the legal threshold to avoid a second round.
  • In two-round systems, this typically means receiving more than 50% of valid votes in the first round.
  • In instant-runoff/ranked choice voting, this means a candidate received more than 50% of first-preference votes.
  • Some elections use different thresholds (e.g., 40% with a 10-point lead, or 45%), in which case the applicable legal threshold applies.
  • The determination is based solely on the first round/first count of votes, before any eliminations, transfers, or subsequent rounds.