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32 / 100
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This event predicts whether North Korea will conduct any nuclear explosive test between January 1, 2026 and December 31, 2026 (inclusive).
- The Primary Designated Source (PDS) will be official announcements by North Korea confirming a nuclear test.
- If North Korea conducts a nuclear explosive test during this period, this market will resolve to "Yes".
- Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- If North Korea does not officially confirm the test, it may still count if at least two of Japan, China, South Korea, or the United States publicly accuse North Korea of conducting a nuclear test based on seismic measurements.
- If evidence is ambiguous, the Secondary Confirmation Mechanism (SCM) will rely on consistent reporting from major international news organizations.
