FutuurVerificar disponibilidadeDados de resolução verificadosAviso de qualidade dos dadosSem preço significativo
Dados de 21 de out. de 2026, 14:40 UTC · política pm-quality-4
Probabilidade implícita atual
Não 100%
Não 100%Qualidade do mercado
30 / 100
Baixa qualidadeVolume 24h
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Atualizado há 2 minutos
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This market resolves on whether the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin reports a higher globally averaged concentration of methane in 2026 than in 2025.
- The 2026 figure is expected in the Bulletin published in the second half of 2027, and the 2025 baseline is the value in Bulletin No. 22.
- FULL DETAILS
- If the WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin that first reports global methane (CH₄) concentrations for 2026 (expected as Bulletin No. 23, in the second half of 2027) shows a globally averaged surface mole fraction of methane for 2026 higher than the 2025 value published in the preceding WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (No. 22), this market will resolve to "Yes"; otherwise, it will resolve to "No".
- The 2026 figure is an annual average, so measurements from all of 2026 count, including those made before this market was published; values for any other year are not taken into account, except the 2025 value used as the baseline.
- The Primary Designated Source is the World Meteorological Organization's annual Greenhouse Gas Bulletin (Global Atmosphere Watch), published at wmo.int.
