Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 72.3%
Voorspellers
46
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 9 uur geleden
Verouderd3 jun 24, 14:10 UTC1 jan 36, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Regels
Criteria for Resolution:
- Claim of Probability: Eliezer Yudkowsky must make a public claim that he is more than 90% sure that AI will kill everyone no later than 1 year after the claim is made.
- The claim must be made in all seriousness, not as a joke or sarcasm.
- Types of Qualifying Statements: Statements such as "certain”, "almost sure”, "pretty certain”, "almost inevitable", or any similar expressions that indicate a probability of higher than 90% will qualify, beyond explicit quantitative claims.
- If resolution criteria are not met, the market will resolve NO on January 1, 2036.
- Verification of Ambiguity:
