Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes?

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes??

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 81.3% per 27 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes? afgewikkeld?

Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 9999 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will we successfully deploy our own Von Neumann probes before we detect foreign Von Neumann probes? afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves YES if a civilization descendant to our current (2024 human) civilization launches Von Neumann probes that successfully replicate in at least one star system other than the sol system before Von Neumann probes created by a civilization not descendant to ours are detected.

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POLYMARKET

Which company has best AI model end of 2026?

• Anthropic+3.0pt56%
• Google-1.5pt35%
• OpenAI-0.1pt6%

+12 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 2,9 mln.

24u volume

€ 167,1K

POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google+7.8pt95%
• Anthropic-6.2pt5%
• Alibaba+0.1pt0%

+18 extra uitkomsten

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 202796.5%
• Before Mar 1, 2027-1.0pt95%
• Before Feb 1, 2027-3.0pt

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+3.1pt59.7%
• Gemini-2.3pt30.1%
• ChatGPT+0.2pt

POLYMARKET

GPT Astra 6.1+ released by which date?

• December 31-7.0pt81%
• December 15-13.5pt74%
• November 30+4.0pt62%

+5 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T-2.0pt29.1%
• $2.0–$2.25T+3.2pt23.3%
• $1.5–$1.75T-0.8pt16.5%

+7 extra uitkomsten

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