Will we learn that somebody started/extended a wildfire to win money on a prediction market before September 2027
WeerOne-Off10mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 77.6%
Voorspellers
4
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd19 jul 26, 15:57 UTC31 aug 27, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Somebody tries to manipulate a regulated drug trial to win money on a prediction market before September 2029
Manifold MarketsHow much of Colorado will burn this wildfire season?
Manifold MarketsConditional on Trump elected, will there be more wildfire acreage burnt in California in 2024-2028 than in 2020-2024?
Manifold MarketsWill the origin and outbreak of the Wildfire virus from The Walking Dead be explained before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWhere will it rain on Oct 28, 2026?
KalshiRegels
Must be real money prediction markets.
- Based on credible reporting, does not need to be a conviction.
- Conspiring with others to start a fire, bribing someone to start the fire for you etc. is enough to resolve YES, if it results in an intentional fire.
- Actively helping an existing fire to spread, including making it difficult for firefighters or other services to respond to the fire appropraitely (or conspiring to do it) is also enough to resolve YES.
- Inaction is by itself not enough to resolve YES.
- Partly subjective resolution, won't bet on this market.