Will Trump change his mind on AI before 2027?
HandelsbeleidOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekGeopolitiekChina2mnd
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 73%
Voorspellers
33
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
20 sep 26, 07:41 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Manifold MarketsRegels
Currently Trump seems very bullish on AI/AGI and dismissive of AI safety.
- This market will resolve YES if I believe that his position on either has changed significantly.
- It will resolve based on social media posts his accounts make, executive orders etc. as long as it's attributable to him and not a quick quip.
- What he actually believes is not relevant for this market, only what he says and does.
- Trump changes his mind a lot, so I'd need to see a shift lasting longer than a couple days (maybe a week of consistency) to resolve YES, or some large decision like a China deal.
- If I'm not convinced he has changed his mind before EOY 2026, I will resolve this NO.
