Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 52.2%
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28
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 6 minuten geleden
15 jul 26, 05:22 UTC1 jun 27, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
What will the peak RONI value for El Niño be during the NDJ 2026-27 season?
KalshiWhat will the peak RONI value be during the 2026-27 El Niño season?
KalshiWill there be a Super El Niño this winter (2026–27)?
PolymarketWhat will the peak RONI be for the 2026–27 El Niño?
PolymarketWave height of 10.0 ft or higher will be recorded off the San Mateo Coast (Pacifica/Half Moon Bay) by November 15, 2026.
Manifold MarketsHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
KalshiRegels
The original resolution criteria incorrectly states that the strongest El Niño ever had a three-month mean RONI of +2.69°C. According to the resolution source, the record is actually +2.4°C. However, for fairness purposes I will NOT be changing the original resolution Criteria.
- This market will resolve to YES if the RONI value from the source below reaches +2.7°C or higher.
- If the peak RONI value from the source below never reaches or exceeds the above value (+2.7°C), this market will resolve to NO. https://cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves to YES if the following condition is met for any three-month running mean season during the El Niño event peaking in late 2026 or early 2027:
- The official Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) reaches +2.70°C or higher (strictly exceeding the historical record of +2.69°C set during the 1982-1983 winter).
Open markten
WeatherKALSHIHighest temperature in Los Angeles on Sep 8, 2026?
- 88° to 89°+9.0pt37%
- 90° or above+11.0pt28%
- 86° to 87°-12.0pt25%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 232,5K
- 24u volume
- € 227,3K
KALSHIWhere will it rain on Sep 8, 2026?
- Minneapolis+6.0pt99%
- Houston+41.0pt71%
- Miami-6.0pt69%
+19 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 186,1K
KALSHIHighest temperature in Miami on Sep 8, 2026?
- 92° to 93°+36.0pt81.7%
- 90° to 91°-29.0pt7.7%
- 94° or above+3.0pt7.7%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIHighest temperature in New York City on Sep 8, 2026?
- 80° to 81°+25.0pt68.2%
- 82° to 83°-12.0pt24.3%
- 79° or below-3.0pt4.7%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETHighest temperature in Chengdu on September 9?
- 27°C+60.0pt93.9%
- 28°C-13.5pt6.1%
- 21°C or below-1.4pt0%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWill a hurricane make landfall in Hawaii in 2026?
- No89%
- Yes-4.0pt11%
- Totaal volume
- € 66,7K
- 24u volume
- € 28,6K
- Highest temperature in Chicago on Sep 8, 2026?
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- Highest temperature in Dallas on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Houston on Sep 8, 2026?
- Highest temperature in Boston on Sep 8, 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded??
- Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 52% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded? afgewikkeld?
- Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded? wordt naar verwachting op 1 juni 2027 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will this El Niño be the strongest ever recorded? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: The original resolution criteria incorrectly states that the strongest El Niño ever had a three-month mean RONI of +2.69°C. According to the resolution source, the record is actually +2.4°C. However, for fairness purposes I will NOT be changing the original resolution Criteria.