Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 74.5%
Voorspellers
33
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd9 nov 23, 15:51 UTC1 jan 51, 07:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will a SpaceX-branded mission land people on Mars prior to Jan 1, 2050?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on Mars, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsHow many people will have walked on the Moon, when there are 100 people on it?
Manifold MarketsWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
PolymarketWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
KalshiLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
PolymarketRegels
If any companies or countries gets 100 people or more to be on mars and alive by the end of 2050 this will resolve as a YES.
- If there is less than 100, it will resolve as NO.
- Any crashes or corpses will not be inuded in the final head count.
Open markten
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 103,1K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Totaal volume
- € 57,4K
- 24u volume
- € 57,4K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 817,9K
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 75% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2051 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be at least 100 people on mars by 2050? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: If any companies or countries gets 100 people or more to be on mars and alive by the end of 2050 this will resolve as a YES.