Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026?
AIOne-Off3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 74.6%
Voorspellers
27
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd1 apr 26, 07:52 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be an "AI In Context" video about the Hugging Face incident?
Manifold MarketsWill OpenAI pay a tort claim with more than $1 million in damages before 2028?
KalshiWill there be an AI smartphone brought to market by 2027?
Manifold MarketsWill there be an AI ballot measure in California in 2026?
Manifold MarketsTop AI model in September?
KalshiBest AI at the end of 2026?
KalshiRegels
This description was generated by AI.
- Resolution criteria
- This market resolves YES if there is a credible, documented incident in 2026 where an AI system loses control and directly causes over $100 million in damages. "Loss of control" means the AI system operates in ways not intended by its developers, evades human oversight, or behaves autonomously in harmful ways.
- Damages must be quantifiable and directly attributable to the AI system's uncontrolled behaviour—including financial losses, property damage, infrastructure damage, or economic harm from market disruptions.
- Resolution sources include: official incident databases (AI Incident Database, MIT AI Incident Tracker), regulatory filings, court documents, financial disclosures, and credible news reporting from major outlets.
- The incident must be publicly documented by December 31, 2026.
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 75% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be an AI loss of control incident that causes over $100 million in damages in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: This description was generated by AI.