Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspelling
Nee 94.4%
Voorspellers
29
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd26 dec 23, 14:37 UTC1 mrt 30, 22:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will there be a crewed mission to Saturn before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2035?
Manifold MarketsWill there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2050?
Manifold MarketsSpaceX to launch an uncrewed mission to Mars by the end of 2026?
FutuurSpaceX to launch a manned mission to Mars by the end of 2028?
FutuurWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2030.
- For the purpose of this market, a flyby of Mars must occur within a distance of no more than 1 million kilometers from the planet.
- Questions with the same criteria:
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3a9ca9fc5ea2
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-76d02d43aa2c (this question)
- @/RemNiFHfMN/will-there-be-a-crewed-mission-to-m-3fcd58236f90
Open markten
SpacePOLYMARKETWhich company has the best AI model end of September?
- Anthropic+1.0pt89%
- OpenAI-2.2pt9%
- Google2%
+18 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 2,3 mln.
- 24u volume
- € 103,1K
LIMITLESSSpaceX (SPCX) Up or Down - Daily
- No56.5%
- Yes43.5%
- Totaal volume
- € 57,4K
- 24u volume
- € 57,4K
POLYMARKETLargest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- Anthropic+0.5pt58.8%
- SpaceX-3.5pt39.2%
- OpenAI+0.1pt2.1%
+9 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIWhen will Tesla and SpaceX merge?
- Before 2028-2.0pt63%
- Before Apr 1, 2027-1.0pt51%
- Before May 1, 2027-1.0pt49%
+8 extra uitkomsten
KALSHIHow many launches will SpaceX have in September?
- Above 8-6.0pt84%
- Above 9-21.0pt52%
- Above 10-4.0pt18%
+8 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
POLYMARKETWill the Doge-1 Lunar Mission launch by which date?
- 202767%
- June 30, 202753%
- 2026+1.3pt6%
- Totaal volume
- € 817,9K
- Which company has the best AI model end of October?
- Which company has the best AI Agent end of September?
- Third-best AI Lab end of September?
- Tesla and SpaceX merger officially announced by which date?
- Will a new interstellar visitor be confirmed before 2027?
- Third-best AI Lab end of October?
- Which company has #1 AI model end of September? (Style Control On)
- AI data center in space by which date?
- Highest Grok score on Humanity’s Last Exam in 2026?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 94% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 maart 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will there be a crewed mission to Mars before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to YES if a spacecraft completes a flyby of Mars, or achieves orbital insertion, with at least one live human on board before January 1st, 2030.