Will the US refuse entry to nonimmigrant travellers at at least three times the rate in 2025 than it did in 2024?
One-OffAmerikaanse politiekRegelgeving3mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 92.1%
Voorspellers
33
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 10 minuten geleden
14 apr 25, 06:21 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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KalshiRegels
Resolves upon publication of the 2025 DHS Yearbook of Immigration Statistics, or earlier if official DHS data is available that can reasonably be expected to contain identical data to what will be in the Yearbook:
- https://ohss.dhs.gov/topics/immigration/yearbook
- The US nonimmigrant inadmissibility rate for the purposes of this market is defined as:
- rate = inadmissible / (admissions + inadmissible)
- If this rate is at least three times as high in 2025 as it was in 2024, the market resolves YES.
- Otherwise it resolves NO.