Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026??

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 83.3% per 26 oktober 2026.

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Will the U.S. lower its 50% tariffs on Canadian goods before November 2026?

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Ja 83.3%

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Bijgewerkt 9 minuten geleden

26 aug 26, 06:33 UTC1 nov 26, 03:59 UTC

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Regels

Resolves YES if, on or before 2026-10-31 23:59 US Eastern, the United States government formally LOWERS its 50% tariff rate on Canadian goods. **What counts (YES):** a Presidential Proclamation, Executive Order, or agency notice published on federalregister.gov (or posted on whitehouse.gov and subsequently published) that either (a) reduces the ad valorem duty rate below 50% for any product category covered by the three Presidential Proclamations signed 2026-07-20, or (b) suspends, pauses, or terminates those proclamations in whole or in part.

The reduction must be *effective* on or before 2026-10-31, not merely announced as a future intention. **What does NOT count (NO):** a framework/handshake announcement with no published legal instrument; a narrow product-specific exclusion granted to individual importers or individual HTS lines under an exclusion process; tariff changes affecting countries other than Canada; a court injunction (this market is about executive action, not litigation); or Canada changing its own retaliatory tariffs. **Oracle:** federalregister.gov and whitehouse.gov presidential-actions.
If ambiguous, the Federal Register document text governs.
Background: Trump signed three proclamations on 2026-07-20 imposing additional 50% tariffs on a broad range of Canadian goods, effective 2026-08-22 after a delay.
Trade talks collapsed; PM Carney announced retaliatory tariffs of 15-50% on ~$27.6B of US goods effective 2026-09-08.
US midterms are 2026-11-03.

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