Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 81.2%
Voorspellers
25
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 18 uur geleden
Verouderd12 jun 24, 19:30 UTC1 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiWill Anthropic have a major conflict involving its unique corporate structure similar to OpenAI before 2030?
Manifold MarketsBy December 31, 2026, Apple will acquire, merge with, or otherwise legally take control of Anthropic.
Manifold MarketsWill the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiRegels
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of Anthropic or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
