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Verouderd12 jun 24, 19:30 UTC1 jan 30, 07:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Will the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of any AI company or project before 2030?
KalshiBy December 31, 2026, Apple will acquire, merge with, or otherwise legally take control of Anthropic.
Manifold MarketsWill the US government functionally seize control of Anthropic by EOY2027?
Manifold MarketsWill the US take control of any part of Greenland?
KalshiWill the US take control of any part of Canada?
KalshiRegels
"US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).
- "take control" means direct managerial authority of Anthropic or over its major technologies, or the exercise of such authority. "Control" does not need to be complete but must be dominant.
- If control of a major technology, the control should be somewhat exclusive.
- "major technologies" means frontier or near-frontier AI models, or otherwise unambiguously "major" technologies.
- I will use reasonable judgement to adjudicate edge cases.
- Examples that count:
Open markten
AIKALSHITop AI model in September?
- claude-fable-5.1-max-12.0pt72%
- claude-opus-5-high+2.0pt6%
- claude-opus-4-6-thinking4%
+3 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 135,2K
- 24u volume
- € 102,7K
POLYMARKETWill CMI declare a Millennium Prize Problem solved by which date?
- 2028+6.5pt62.1%
- 2027-3.5pt28.4%
- 2026+2.0pt9.5%
POLYMARKETAnthropic IPO by which date?
- December 31,-1.0pt90%
- December 15,+3.5pt90%
- November 30,85%
+7 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
KALSHIBest AI at the end of 2026?
- Claude-0.7pt61.4%
- ChatGPT-2.1pt22.8%
- Grok-0.1pt7.9%
+5 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 9,1 mln.
KALSHIBest AI in Sep 2026?
- Claude+3.0pt81.3%
- ChatGPT-1.0pt11.2%
- Grok2.8%
+4 extra uitkomsten
- Totaal volume
- € 325K
POLYMARKETOpenAI’s Astra Model: Text Arena Debut?
- 1480+-2.5pt66%
- 1490+-9.0pt51%
- 1500+-3.0pt23%
+2 extra uitkomsten
- Largest IPO by market cap in 2026?
- OpenAI IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?
- Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap
- When will OpenAI achieve AGI?
- Will Anthropic’s valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Will OpenAI's valuation hit __ by December 31?
- Next Google Gemini Pro Model released by which date?
- Best Chinese AI Company end of September?
- What will OpenAI's IPO valuation be?
Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 81% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030? wordt naar verwachting op 1 januari 2030 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: "US government" includes all branches of federal and state government, including all executive departments (e.g. armed forces, Justice Department) and agencies responsible to them (e.g. FBI, NSA).