Will the US Government make a show of declassifying everything on UFOs / UAPs before 2030
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekVerkiezing3jManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 54.1%
Voorspellers
36
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 8 uur geleden
Verouderd14 jul 23, 20:55 UTC31 dec 29, 16:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Which public figures will declare they believe aliens have been hidden by the US government?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of Anthropic or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US government take control of OpenAI or its major technologies before 2030?
Manifold MarketsWill the US Government issue 50-year bonds before 2030?
Manifold MarketsUS government bans an open source AI model in 2026?
PolymarketUS government budget balance in 2026
KalshiRegels
They don't have to actually declassify *everything* to resolve YES.
- It's enough that they make some substantial declassifications and do it in a way that seems intended to give the impression that they are "declassifying everything".
- Redactions are fine, national security exceptions are fine, this is ultimately more about political perception than reality.
- If a presidential candidate pledges to declassify everything and then on winning election does some significant declassifications in a way that seems intended to fulfill that campaign promise that would presumptively resolve YES.
- In case of ambiguity I may resolve to market IF I think the market price seems reasonable and not an artifact of manipulation or poor liquidity.
- Otherwise I will just make my own best judgement.