Will the US enact binding pre-deployment evals with power to block frontier AI releases, before 2030?
One-OffAIRegelgevingTech3j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensGoed gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitVerouderde gegevens
Gegevens van 30 okt 2026, 03:10 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 51.9%
Voorspellers
1
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt gisteren
Verouderd6 sep 26, 10:25 UTC1 jan 30, 05:00 UTC
Trends
Regels
Resolves YES if, before January 1, 2030, the United States enacts binding third-party pre-deployment evaluation requirements for frontier AI models, with legal authority to block release (federal statute or regulation with equivalent force).
- Voluntary commitments, guidance without blocking authority, or state laws without frontier-release blocking power do not count.
- Part of a set eliciting the joint distribution over frontier concentration, oversight policy, warning shots, and AI catastrophe.
- Conditional prices reflect correlated beliefs, not causal estimates — companion markets price the selection channels directly.
