Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 95.1%
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binary
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Play-money forecasting platform
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Bijgewerkt 3 uur geleden
Verouderd18 feb 26, 04:58 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
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Manifold MarketsIran nuclear test before 2027?
PolymarketRussia nuclear test by which date?
PolymarketRegels
Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.
- Doesn't have to occur on US soil, as long as it is the US conducting the test.
- A US test conducted in conjunction with another nation (like France or the UK) would qualify, as long as it's clear that the US is an equal partner in these tests.
- By tests, we're talking actual nuclear tests, the kinds we made treaties about, not the kind of monitoring that the US does regularly, even if Trump, say, calls that a "nuclear test".
- Very strong OSINT arguments (radioactivity monitoring, seismology, etc) such that a reasonable Manifolder would conclude it is highly likely that the US conducted a nuclear test based on the evidence would qualify, even if the mainstream press phrases things ambiguously like "The US may or may not have conducted a nuclear test" or similar.
- I will not bet on this market to remain as objective as possible.
Open markten
US PoliticsPOLYMARKETPresidential Election Winner 2028
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Veelgestelde vragen
- Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026??
- Manifold Markets prijst No op 95% per 8 september 2026.
- Wanneer wordt Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.
- Hoe wordt Will the US conduct a nuclear test in 2026? afgewikkeld?
- Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: Resolves to a consensus of credible sources.