Will the US and Russia start a new nuclear arms race before 2028?
PolitiekOne-OffAmerikaanse politiekGeopolitiekRusland / OekraïneChina1j
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 26 okt 2026, 05:41 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 81.9%
Voorspellers
21
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 1 uur geleden
Vertraagd6 feb 26, 00:13 UTC31 dec 27, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Resolution criteria
- The New START treaty expired on February 5, 2026, removing the last binding limits on US and Russian strategic nuclear arsenals.
- This market resolves YES if the US and Russia engage in a sustained, mutual increase in deployed strategic nuclear warheads or delivery systems that represents a clear departure from pre-2026 patterns.
- Resolution will be based on official declarations, public statements from US and Russian government officials, and verified data from credible sources such as the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), the Congressional Budget Office, and the US Department of Defense.
- An arms race requires demonstrable action—not merely the absence of a treaty—such as:
- Announcements of significant new nuclear weapons deployments or production programs
