Will the United States of America abduct another head of state in 2026?
One-OffAmerikaanse politiekGeopolitiekPolitiekLatijns-Amerika2mndManifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdHuidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingNee 89%
Voorspellers
43
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binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
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Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 12 uur geleden
Verouderd3 jan 26, 18:37 UTC31 dec 26, 23:59 UTC
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PolymarketRegels
Following the events in Caracas, there’s one clear question: is this the start of a trend?
- This market resolves YES if any individual named on Wikipedia’s List of current heads of state and government is abducted by any part of the United States state apparatus (military, CIA, Postal Service) for any duration before market close.
- If this does not happen before market close then the market will resolve NO.
- Evidence for YES must be a headline from either one of the five largest US news organisations or one of the top three papers of record in the relevant country.
- Abduction need not be from the country of which the individual is head of state, nor must the individual be removed to US territory for the abduction to count.
- As final arbiter of “was this an abduction” I will not bet on this market.
