Will the increase in global average temperature from 1978 to 2048 be above 1 degree Celsius?
RuimtevaartDailyWeer
Manifold MarketsGeen KYCGeverifieerde afwikkelingsgegevensRedelijk gekalibreerdWaarschuwing datakwaliteitBrongegevens verslechterd
Gegevens van 25 okt 2026, 20:28 UTC · beleid pm-quality-4
Huidige gemeenschapsvoorspellingJa 64.6%
Voorspellers
19
Vraagtype
binary
Methodologie
Play-money forecasting platform
Brontype
Voorspelling
Marktdata
Bijgewerkt 2 uur geleden
Verouderd8 apr 24, 19:51 UTC30 nov 48, 23:59 UTC
Trends
Gerelateerde Markten
Gerelateerde vragen voor context, geen vergelijking van gelijkwaardige contracten.
Global Average Temperature Oct 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsGlobal Average Temperature 2026 per LOTI v4 vs 1951-1980 base period (NASA Gistemp)
Manifold MarketsWill Glencore's Congo deal result in a 2% increase in global copper supply by July 2026?
Manifold MarketsWill Denver never have a below-average temperature year between 2020 and 2055?
Manifold MarketsCincinnati cumulative Heating Degree Days (Oct 1 - Dec 31, 2026)
KalshiWill the global average yield of rice exceed 4.75 metric tons per hectare for the 2027 marketing year?
ForecastExRegels
The increase in temperature will be calculated:
- a) taking NOAA-STAR satellite measurements of the temperature of the lower troposphere (see https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/smcd/emb/mscat/) OR the most similar such data if this dataset is discontinued,
- b) calculating the slope and intercept of a least-squares affine fit of this data versus time (from November 1978 to November 2048),
- c) using that fit to calculate the change in temperature between 1978 and 2048.
- For reference, from Nov 1978 - Mar 2024, the anomaly has been 0.135 K/decade.
- The time elapsed has been 45.33 years.
