Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance?

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Wat zijn de huidige kansen voor Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance??

Manifold Markets prijst Yes op 82.9% per 25 oktober 2026.

Wanneer wordt Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? afgewikkeld?

Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? wordt naar verwachting op 31 december 2026 afgewikkeld.

Hoe wordt Will the highest-scoring LLM on Dec 31, 2026 show <10% improvement over 2025's best average benchmark performance? afgewikkeld?

Manifold Markets wikkelt deze markt als volgt af: BASELINE (2025 leader): The current leader as of Aug 2025 appears to be GPT-4.5 with ~90.2% on MMLU, with Claude 4 and Gemini 2.5 Pro at ~85-86%

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POLYMARKET

Which company has the best AI model end of October?

• Google-0.3pt90%
• Anthropic-5.0pt4%
• Alibaba0%

+18 extra uitkomsten

Totaal volume

€ 3,1 mln.

24u volume

€ 91,5K

KALSHI

Best AI at the end of 2026?

• Claude+7.0pt55.5%
• Gemini-3.3pt34.8%
• ChatGPT-0.8pt

POLYMARKET

Anthropic IPO Closing Market Cap

• $1.75–$2.0T+1.5pt30.2%
• $1.5–$1.75T-3.8pt18.8%
• $2.0–$2.25T-0.2pt18.8%

+7 extra uitkomsten

POLYMARKET

OpenAI announces bankruptcy by which date?

• 2029-1.0pt20%
• 2028-1.0pt16%
• 2027-1.0pt8%

KALSHI

When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO?

• Before Apr 1, 2027+2.0pt92.5%
• Before Mar 1, 202791.5%
• Before Feb 1, 202788.5%

KALSHI

OpenRouter AI token usage in October

• Above 675T tokens88%
• Above 600T tokens50%
• Above 650T tokens99.5%

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